Integrating Science through Bayesian Belief Networks: Case study of Lyngbya in Moreton Bay

نویسندگان

  • C. Alston
  • T. Chiffings
  • E. Abal
  • B. Hart
  • K. Mengersen
چکیده

Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are emerging as valuable tools for investigating complex ecological problems. In a BBN, the important variables in a problem are identified and causal relationships are represented graphically. Underpinning this is the probabilistic framework in which variables can take on a finite range of mutually exclusive states. Associated with each variable is a conditional probability table (CPT), showing the probability of a variable attaining each of its possible states conditioned on all possible combinations of it parents. Whilst the variables (nodes) are connected, the CPT attached to each node can be quantified independently. This allows each variable to be populated with the best data available, including expert opinion, simulation results or observed data. It also allows the information to be easily updated as better data become available

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تاریخ انتشار 2005